Global Economic Conditions: According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections released in Hamle 2018 E.C., geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased global economic uncertainty. While global energy prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, global growth projections have been revised slightly downward to 3.0 percent for 2026 G.C. and 3.4 percent for 2027 G.C. Global inflation is projected to average 4.7 percent in 2026 G.C. before declining to 3.9 percent in 2027 G.C. Although recent agreements between Russia and Ukraine have offered some relief, global economic instability risks remain prominent.
Monetary Policy Committee Analysis and Recommendations
Taking into account the domestic inflationary pressures driven by global energy prices, and with the objective of achieving the National Bank of Ethiopia's medium-term single-digit inflation target, the Committee concluded that the current tight monetary policy stance must be maintained and strengthened. Accordingly, the Committee submitted the following monetary policy recommendations to the Board of Directors:
First: The National Bank of Ethiopia has historically utilized direct credit caps as a temporary tool to manage monetary expansion until a fully price-based/interest-rate-based monetary policy framework is established. Given that the target objectives of these credit caps have been successfully met, the Committee recommended the full removal of the credit cap framework. This adjustment does not signify a loosening of the National Bank’s tight monetary stance; rather, it marks a transition toward utilizing indirect, interest-rate-based monetary policy instruments to manage liquidity effectively. The National Bank of Ethiopia will continue to use all available indirect monetary policy tools within its framework to maintain this tight stance.
Second: Following the lifting of the credit cap, and to ensure a commensurate and cautious monetary policy response, the Committee recognized the need for the National Bank to reinforce its tight stance. Therefore, it recommended that the NBE central bank rate be increased by 1.0 percentage point (moving from 15 percent to 16 percent), while maintaining the asymmetric corridor band at \pm 3 percentage points, which was officially approved by the Board.
Third: To prevent excessive credit expansion from exerting upward pressure on prices, the Committee recommended the implementation of a targeted reserve requirement based on the regular assessments conducted by the National Bank on individual banks' loan-to-deposit ratios.
Fourth: To reduce costs associated with merchandise trade, mitigate inflationary impacts, and support the foreign exchange market, the Committee recommended that the National Bank’s foreign exchange commission rate be reduced from 2.5 percent to 1.5 percent (a reduction of 1 percentage point).
Fifth: To enhance export competitiveness, bolster market confidence, and increase foreign exchange liquidity, the Committee recommended that the foreign exchange surrender requirement for exporters be reduced from 50 percent to 30 percent, allowing them to retain 70 percent of their foreign exchange earnings.
The Committee agreed to reconvene in Meskerem 2019 E.C. to reassess conditions, or earlier if macroeconomic conditions necessitate an extraordinary session.
Monetary Policy Committee
National Bank of Ethiopia
Hamle 6, 2018 E.C.








